JKT48 6th Single Post-Election Analysis

It has been seven weeks since I wrote an article introducing JKT48’s 6th single election and the possible consequences of its outcome. As fans around the world held their breath yesterday during the two-part announcement of the results, there was a palpable sense of excitement and anxiety in the air among members and fans alike.

Seven weeks—exactly 49 days—and three rounds of voting built up to yesterday’s crowning moment. Almost exactly two and a half years since JKT48 was revealed to the public, its first elected senbatsu would stand on the stage that Indonesians have previously only seen on Japanese television. While the final result is all that matters at the end, we should still look back at what happened along the process.

For the purposes of this analysis, I will make the assumption that 40 members—19 from Team J, 16 from Team KIII, and 5 Trainees—truly participated in the election. This excludes the 31 third generation members, who entered the race midway through the voting period and had a marginal effect on the results. Of these 40, 22 received a top 16 position at least once in the three announcements made during the voting period.

Phase 1 (March 5–11)

The graphic above displays the result of the first phase of the election that was announced on March 15. This reflects the total number of votes submitted in the first week of election, which ran from the release of “Flying Get” on March 5 to the seventh day of March 11. In this period, a total of 5,372 votes were received for the top 16 members.

Analysis of field reports from the first few days indicate that sales of the “Flying Get” single, each containing a unique serial number for voting, were sporadic because CDs were not yet available at all Alfa Group convenience stores. Furthermore, it became evident that each outlet was limited to 15 copies of the single at a time. This prompted a guerrilla war among fans as they hunted for CDs already in circulation. When excluding possible votes submitted by theater attendees and Official Fan Club members, we can estimate that approximately 1,500 copies of the single were sold in the first week.

Such sales figure is quite dismal when considering that Alfa Group boasts more than 7,000 outlets around the country. Fans were afraid that the unavailability of CDs would carry on through the rest of the election, prompting attempts to secure them by all means possible. Allegations of side dealings with distributors who were tasked with delivering the singles to the outlets were common in the early days of the voting period.

Consider also the difference in votes between first place and 16th place in this first phase—264 votes. This gap could be closed with votes from 88 CDs, whose serial numbers could be used to submit three votes each. Perhaps accounting for this slow escalation of votes, management announced that serial numbers could be acquired through text message in the second phase. This move was met with outrage among some fan circles instead of excitement because the nature of text message submissions meant that votes submitted were not limited by availability of stock. It turned the election into a competition of which fans had the most money and time to send text messages for the serial numbers.

The right graphic above depicts what happens to the first phase rankings when they are reordered according to the second phase rankings. Describing it as a mess may be the most accurate way of assessing the situation. It meant that senbatsu positions were still open to competition from anyone.

Phase 2 (March 12–25)

The graphic above displays the result of the second phase of the election that was announced on March 25. This reflects the total number of votes submitted through the third week. This phase includes the period in which management allowed votes to be submitted using serial numbers acquired from mobile content downloads by text message, a program that ran March 16–25.

On the left graphic, votes from the second phase are now added to the picture. It is evident that text message votes were able to change the game for many members, allowing them to secure top 16 positions in this phase. One particular example is Rica, who we can assume received fewer than 200 votes in the first phase. Strong showing in the second phase eventually gave her seventh place in the final senbatsu rankings. She had the third highest gain in votes in this phase, after Melody and Jessica Veranda.

There were reports that many fans shifted their focus from acquiring CDs to submitting as many text messages as possible in order to secure serial numbers before the voting window closed. It should be noted that although text messages had to be submitted between March 16 and 25, the serial numbers acquired from them could be submitted after that time window. Vote gains by five members were higher than cumulative number of votes received by top 16 members of the first phase. These were Melody (+7,494), Jessica Veranda (+6,095), Rica (between +5,704 and +5,914), Beby (+5,644), and Kinal (+5,617).

On the other hand, Nabilah (+2,216), Haruka (+2,258), and Shania (+2,399) were among the lowest gainers in this phase. This puzzled observers because they are members of high stature in the eyes of management and fans. It is unthinkable that they could fall to the bottom of the top 16 rankings with such weak turnout. Of particular concern is Nabilah, who is the only member to have more than one million followers on Twitter. Her popularity on the field does not match the turnout in this phase. The same goes for Haruka, as center of JKT48’s 3rd single, and Shania, who is generally seen as the top non-center member.

Angga has written on the cost difference between submitting votes by text message and by CD purchases. This resulted in an inflation of the vote totals in the second phase. Instead of a race in the hundreds, it became a race in the thousands.

Phase 3 (March 26 – April 22)

The graphic above displays the result of the third and final phase of the election that was announced on April 26. This reflects the total number of votes submitted in all seven weeks of the voting period. When taking into account known vote figures from all three phases, we know at least 159,227 votes were submitted overall.

Again, on the left graphic, votes from the final four weeks of the election period are added to the picture. When the announcement of Jessica Vania’s position as senbatsu gatekeeper in 16th place was made on early Saturday afternoon, it set the threshold for which members could secure top 16 positions. This meant that any member who had received more than 4,718 votes in the second phase were guaranteed senbatsu positions. They were Rica, Kinal, Beby, Jessica Veranda, and Melody. Recall that these five are also the top gainers of the second phase, which meant that they had already secured senbatsu positions as of March 25, one month before voting closed. It emphasizes the ability of text message voting to change the picture of the race.

Meanwhile, the lowest gainers of the second phase became the highest gainers of the third phase. Nabilah, Shania, and Haruka gained a cumulative 29,961 votes. If these votes were all acquired through CD purchases at full price, it would have cost almost Rp350 million, equivalent to approximately US$30,400 or ¥3.09 million. This is not a likely scenario. What most likely happened was that fans decided to deceive rivals by saving their text message votes for submission after the second phase results were announced. This appears to true, as many Nabilah fans admit to a “vote-bombing” effort in the final phase of the election.

Excluding the outliers of Nabilah, Shania, and Haruka, the senbatsu members gained on average 47.7 percent of their total votes in the third phase. This is actually quite an impressive showing, especially considering that most votes from this phase should come from CD sales, which cost more per vote than the text message method. Achieving nearly the same amount of votes as the first and second phases combined with a higher budget requirement is no small feat.

Summary

These results were certified by the notary office of Tjhong Sendrawan. While there is little publicly available information on the Internet regarding his background, he appears to have signed off on a number of transactions involving companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Therefore, it is my judgment that the election results are valid and without error. Allegations of fraud can be seen as unwarranted defamation of the election process until concrete proof is brought forward.

We will never know the total number of votes submitted for the election. A management official with one of the Alfa Group store affiliates had reportedly revealed that approximately 180,000 votes had been submitted as of Wednesday, April 16. In context, this is higher than the 150,570 votes Rino Sashihara received in AKB48’s 32nd Single Senbatsu Sousenkyo. If JKT48 fans amass their buying power toward a single member in the 48 Group, they can potentially place her in senbatsu position. Overseas fans also contributed to this election, with reports of votes coming in from Japan, Malaysia, and the United States.

We will also never know the true cost of this first JKT48 election. However, we can make an estimate based on computation using some of the figures already mentioned above. (I will spare you the intricate calculations.) Our estimate is that the JKT48 6th single election cost as much as Rp1.5 billion, equivalent to US$129,000 or ¥13.2 million. This could vary depending on how many votes were submitted through theater attendance or Official Fan Club membership.