JKT48 10th Single Post-Election Analysis
Having emerged from last year’s 6th single election as battle-hardened veterans, JKT48 fans returned in full force for this year’s 10th single election. Many fans welcomed last year’s results with enthusiasm, and also a great deal of satisfaction, but I also considered those results as “safe”. The 10th single election tested the endurance of fans. While it may not be said out loud, I believe it has been a draining month for fans.
This year’s election ran for five weeks—exactly 35 days—which is two weeks shorter than last year. The short span of this period forced JKT48 fans to become more competitive in the efforts to push for their oshimen. We will break down each phase in order to digest what happened under the surface.
Phase 1 (March 27 – April 2)
The graphic above displays the result of the first phase of the election that was announced on April 7. This reflects the total number of votes submitted in the first week of election, which ran from the release of “Pareo adalah Emerald” on March 27 to the seventh day on April 2. In this period, a total of 23,104 votes were received for the top 16 members and 32,989 for the top 32 members.
This year, JKT48 management abandoned the idea of selling pre-election singles through channel distribution at convenience stores. In centralizing all sales, the guerrilla warfare for pre-election singles that was so rampant last year was no longer a factor in the second election. What does this mean? Immediate availability of voting serial codes, made available in the 9th single, allowed for a quicker pace of voting in the first phase of the election.
By allowing fans to pre-order and pre-pay for their purchases electronically, JKT48 management were able to hand out voting codes quicker and more efficiently even before the fans could hold physical copies of the singles they bought. When excluding possible votes submitted by theater attendees and Official Fan Club members, we can estimate that at least 8,000 equivalent copies of the theater version of the 9th single were sold in the first week. This is more than five times the number sold within the same time frame last year, which is a testament to the increased efficiency of this year’s election.
Without a guerrilla warfare, the results of the first phase relied solely on a single factor. Which members have fans who could accumulate funds the fastest to gain an early lead in CD purchases and serial code acquisition? This benefits the more tightly-knit fan circles, such as those of Sisil, Sendy, and third generation members. They may have prepared days or weeks before the actual voting period began in accumulating these funds. On the other hand, members with much larger fan communities, such as those of Team J, would take longer to organize a plan of attack while still putting a respectable show of force just because individual members of their communities know how to act independently.
Phase 2 (April 3–9)
The graphic above displays the result of the second phase of the election that was announced on April 14. This reflects the total number of votes submitted through the second week. This phase overlapped the period in which management allowed votes to be submitted using serial numbers acquired from mobile content downloads by text message, a program that ran April 8–12.
The second phase is where the election turned into a complex game of numbers. During the second phase alone, the tally had accumulated more than 100,000 additional votes, quadrupling the total number of votes from the first phase. This is an incredible feat, considering that not all of the mobile content votes should have been counted. The graphic to the right ranks members according to the number of votes gained during the second phase alone. Two members—Jeje and Shani—entered the rankings only in this phase, so their numbers reflect gains in both phases. Key shifts in the rankings occurred in upper bracket during this phase. When the dust settled, the seven largest gainers in this phase were now in the top seven positions of the rankings.
At this point of the election, fans became more cost-conscious. JKT48 management had made an unprecedented move in bundling the election voting tickets in the theater versions of the 9th single, which is normally reserved for handshake tickets. (Even AKB48 Sousenkyo tickets are only included in the regular version of the single, not the theater version.) It was also discovered that the cost of votes gained through mobile downloads had risen from the previous year. The loophole that was present in last year’s mobile download votes was also resolved.
The breakdown of vote cost is as follows:
- 9th single (Regular version): 6 votes for Rp. 80,000
- 9th single (Theater version): 3 votes for Rp. 40,000
- 9th single (Basic version): 3 votes for Rp. 40,000
- Mobile content download: 1 vote for Rp. 7,700 (Rp. 2,200 + Rp. 5,500)
The regular version of the 9th single contains a photo card of one of the single’s senbatsu members. The theater version contains a handshake ticket and a trading card. The basic version contains a sticker. Mobile content download contains no bonuses.
Fans immediately caught on to the idea of reselling bonuses included in the 9th single. Of the available bonuses, handshake tickets were considered to have the highest resale value. (Resale value of photo cards, trading cards, and stickers fluctuates according to the member, and the market for such items is limited to avid collectors.) By reselling handshake tickets at high as Rp. 25,000 each, fans could recoup between one-half to two-thirds of the cost of the single. In turn, those funds can be invested into purchasing new theater versions of the single. At Rp. 5,000 to Rp. 6,667 per vote, this proved to be a more cost-effective gamble than mobile content downloads.
This gave rise to the frequent advertisements of “subsidized handshake tickets” for sale by each member’s fan bases. The faster handshake tickets are sold, the faster votes can be funneled to the members. The risk of this method is that the demand for a member’s handshake tickets cannot be anticipated, but it is a fact that fans would be enticed by handshake tickets at discounted prices. One inherent disadvantage of this system is with members who have very few handshake sessions, as fans would need to purchase tickets of other members in order to catch up. But in order to do so, fans of one member would need to collaborate with fans of another member to ensure handshake tickets can be resold with funds channeled to the subsidizing party.
Phase 3 (April 10–30)
The graphic above displays the result of the third and final phase of the election that was announced on May 2. This reflects the total number of votes submitted in all five weeks of the voting period. When taking into account known vote figures from all three phases, we know at least 356,399 votes were submitted overall. (Dwango reports the absolute total number of votes as 366,301.)
Followers of my or JKT48Stuff’s Twitter account may have seen a version of the table above on Friday and Saturday, where I predicted the triumph of Jessica Veranda over Melody Nurramdhani. What is the basis of this prediction? Last year, I observed that the vote gain in the final phase of the 6th single election was higher for Veranda than for Melody. (Conversely, the ratio of votes through the second phase is higher for Melody than for Veranda.) This meant that the majority of Veranda’s votes came in the final phase of the election. I predicted this would happen again in the 10th single election, which it did. Veranda’s final phase vote gain outpaced that of Melody’s this year by a 37-point margin, securing her victory.
Yet no one expected Melody to place third. Ruling out any foul play, fans of Haruka secured her second-place ranking in a last-minute sprint. Her vote gain for the final phase was 18,442, a tremendous 536-percent growth over her second phase results. This dwarfs even the second-largest vote gainer of the final phase, Andela, who gained 13,215 votes and rose 301 percent. Four other members gained more than 10,000 votes in the final phase—Veranda, Viny, Yuvia, and Ikha. In terms of percentage growth, Yuvia (336 percent), Beby (316 percent), and Ayana (315 percent) also stood out above the rest.
As mentioned above, the number of handshake sessions available for a member likely had an effect on the number of votes she received. Andela is a prime example of this scenario. She started the month with only four sessions but successively sold out her sessions one by one until she sold out seven, equal to both Veranda and Melody and even more than Haruka. Yet a member’s own handshake session is not enough. Consider the fact that Shania and Viny sold just as many sessions as Veranda, Melody, and Andela, yet both place a distant sixth and seventh, respectively.
Vote pacing is an important factor to consider when reviewing the final results. In a five-week election, steady pacing means 20 percent of a member’s vote should be submitted every week. With the final phase of the election being three weeks long, fans must aim for 60 percent of their member’s vote to be submitted during this period. However, this was not always be possible because fan groups might not have enough funds to execute their campaign strategies in the early stages. Instead, the ideal scenario is for a member’s votes to accelerate each week, growing at a faster pace from the previous week. Of the top 32 members, 14 received more than 60 percent of their votes in the final phase. Ten of these became senbatsu members.
Although there were a number of surprising movements within the top 32 between the second and third phases, it is interesting to observe that no one was able to newly breach the top rankings. All 32 members who ranked in the second phase also ranked in the final phase.
Changes from 6th Single Election
Of the 15 remaining senbatsu members of the 6th single, 11 returned as senbatsu in the 10th single. Yet we cannot compare the 10th single results to the 6th single results on an empirical basis because votes for the 6th single could be inflated through cheap mobile content downloads.
However, vote differences between this year and last year can indicate certain trends. Since the average cost per vote has risen from the previous year, no change in votes between the two years means that monetary support for a certain member rose at the same level as the rise in cost. In this respect, rise in funding by fans of Tata and Beby closely matched the rise in costs. Increase in funds among fans of Viny, Yuvia, and Ayana more than doubled the pace of rising costs. Meanwhile, funding by fans of Yona was the only one which fell far below the rising costs.
Declines in the ranks of Shania, Nabilah, and Beby are perhaps the biggest disappointments in this respect. Many will argue that they are key support members of Team J and the first generation, but as some of the youngest from last year’s senbatsu batch they experience stiff competition from older members who have developed a stronger sense of mission. This is reflected well in how they reacted to their results.
Summary
These results were certified by the notary office of Tjhong Sendrawan. While there is little publicly available information on the Internet regarding his background, he appears to have signed off on a number of transactions involving companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Therefore, it is my judgment that the election results are valid and without error. Allegations of fraud can be seen as unwarranted defamation of the election process until concrete proof is brought forward.
Perhaps the Cinderella story of this year’s election is that of Sisil, who was once left behind by JKT48 management as a Trainee before finally becoming among the last of the second generation to be promoted into a team. Following her placement into Team KIII, she has magnified her presence on and off the stage and allowed her personality to impress JKT48 fans. Admittedly, I was also among those who doubted Sisil’s determination in her early days as a Trainee, but she has grown tremendously in the two years since I first saw her.
The 10th single election shows us that a strong start (such as Sisil’s) or a strong finish (such as Haruka’s) can play a critical role in securing a member’s place in the single’s line-up. I was initially worried about Ikha’s placement in the top rankings because she was the only member whose vote gain in the second phase (1,918) was lower than in the first phase (2,580). Clearly, fans of Ikha were able to defy expectations and endured a long battle.
We have yet to fully understand what Melody’s fall means for JKT48 in the year ahead. On the one hand, it is an opportunity for JKT48 members to introduce younger members to the public. On the other hand, it challenges Indonesians’ image of JKT48 where Melody is its most recognizable face. Can Indonesians still recognize JKT48 with Jessica Veranda as its center?
Senbatsu (Ranks 1–16)
Under Girls (Ranks 17–32)
去年の6thシングル選抜総選挙を戦い抜いたJKT48のファンは、今年の10thシングル選抜総選挙でも力を尽くした。去年の結果には多くのファンが熱狂したと共に満足の声を上げた。私も「セーフ」な結果だと思っている。この10thシングル選抜選挙は、ファンの持久力を試すものになった。あまり大きな声で言えないが、この1ヶ月はファンにとって精力を費やす時期だっただろう。
今年の総選挙は5週間（ちょうど35日間）に渡って行われた。去年より2週間短い。より短い期間はJKT48ファンが推しメンをプッシュする活動をあおった。以下で選挙期間をそれぞれのフェーズに分け、動向を分析してみたい。
フェーズ1 (3月27日 – 4月2日)
上に示すグラフは4月7日に発表されたフェーズ1の結果（速報）である。3月27日（「パレオはエメラルド」発売日）から4月2日・1週間の投票数を表している。この期間にトップ16名は合計23,104票、トップ32人では32,989票を集めた。
今年JKT48の運営はコンビニルートでCDを売ることをやめた。すべての販売を集約し、2回目のこの選挙では去年のようなCD買い集めゲリラ戦はなくなった。ファンはシリアルコードをすぐに手に入れられることになり、フェーズ1の投票ペースが速くなったのである。
ファンが事前注文・先払いできるようになったネット販売のおかげで、JKT48の運営はファンが買ったCDの現物を手にする前でも投票用シリアルコードを速く効率よく発行することができた。劇場公演観覧者による投票と公式ファンクラブ会員の投票を除けば、発売から1週間で少なくとも8,000枚（劇場版）が売れたと言えるだろう。これは去年の同期間に販売された枚数の5倍以上となる。今年の選挙の効率が上がったことを証明する数字だろう。
ゲリラ戦も無く、フェーズ1の結果を左右するのは一つの要素のみであった。CDの購入とシリアルコードの入手で先行するための資金を集められるファンがいるメンバー、それは誰なのか？シシル、センディ、3期生などのようなより団結力のあるファングループに利があった。実際の投票期間前に資金集めの準備をしていた可能性もある。一方で、チームJメンバーのファンコミュニティーのように大きなところは、独自で動けるファンの投票力で結果を出しながらコミュニティの全体戦略を整えるまで時間がかかったようだ。
フェーズ2 (4月3日 – 9日)
上に示すグラフは4月14日に発表されたフェーズ2の結果（中間発表）である。2週目までの投票数を表している。SMS送信によるモバイル投票分がある時期(4月8日～12日)と重なっている。
フェーズ2では選挙が複雑な数字ゲームなった。このフェーズ2だけで10万票が上乗せとなり、フェーズ1の約4倍になった。モバイル票がまだすべてカウントされていなかったことを考えると、驚くべき展開だとわかる。右のグラフはフェーズ2の票数だけでメンバーをランキングしたものだ。メンバー2人（ジェジェとシャニ）はこのフェーズだけで32位以内に入ったので、フェーズ1の票数を含んでいる。上位には著しい順位の変動が起こっている。あらためて最終結果を踏まえて見ると、このフェーズ2で一番票数を獲得した7人は結局、トップ7を占めることになった。
この時点でファンはコストをより重視し始めた。JKT48の運営は、いつもは握手券を付けている劇場盤に投票権を付けるという初の試みに出た（AKB48の総選挙の投票券は通常版に入っている。劇場版ではない）。モバイル票のコストは去年より上がった。去年存在していたモバイル票のダウンロードバグは解決されていた。
投票コストの詳細は以下の通り。
9thシングル(DVD付き通常版)： 6票 / 80,000ルピア
9thシングル (劇場版) ： 3票 / 40,000ルピア
9thシングル (DVD無し通常版)： 3票 / 40,000ルピア
モバイルダウンロード： 1票 / 7,700ルピア (2,200 + 5,500ルピア)
DVD付きの通常版にはこのシングルの選抜メンバーの写真が1枚入っている。劇場版には握手券とトレーディングカード。DVD無しの通常版にはステッカー1枚のみ。モバイルダウンロードには特典はついていない。
ファンはこのシングルに入っている特典を転売するという作戦にすぐに移った。特典の中では握手券が一番高い転売価値がある（写真・カード・ステッカーはメンバーによって価値が大きく変動し、買い手も限られているから）。25,000ルピアで握手券を転売したら、CDの原価の50%~66%を回収することができる。そうやって得た資金は新しい劇場版CDの購入に回せる。1票が5,000~6,667ルピアになるとモバイルダウンロードよりも安価な方法であった。
これで、各メンバーのファンベースが「握手券転売します」というキャンペーンを始めた。握手券を早く売れば早くメンバーに投票できる。この方法のリスクは、それぞれのメンバーの握手券の需要が読めないこと。しかし握手券が割引となればファンにとっては魅力的だろう。握手会セッション数が少ないメンバーの場合は、そのメンバーのファンが別メンバーの握手券を買わないと遅れを取ってしまうという不利な点もある。その場合、あるメンバーのファンは別のメンバーのファンと、握手券を助成目的の資金で売ってもらえるよう協力・確認が必要であった。
フェーズ 3 (4月10日–30日)
上に示すグラフは5月2日に発表された最終フェーズ3の結果である。投票期間5週間の総投票数を表している。全フェーズの投票数を合わせると、最低でも356,399票がされたことがわかる。(ドワンゴニュースによると、合計投票数は366,301票)
上の表は、以前金曜日と土曜日に私自身のとJKT48Stuffのツイッターとで投稿したものだ。それでジェシカ・フェランダがメロディー・ヌランダニを超える可能性があることについて述べた。なぜこの予想かというと、去年の最終フェーズにはフェランダの方が票数の伸びがよかったからだ（逆に、フェーズ2はメロディーの方が上だった）。つまり、フェランダの獲得票の大多数は最終フェーズのものであることがわかる。そしてこれは今回の総選挙でもまたありえると予測した。最終フェーズのフェランダの票数獲得率はメロディーより37ポイント高く、それがフェランダの勝利を確実にした。
しかし、メロディーの3位は誰も予想していなかった。規則違反が無いのだから、ハルカの2位はファンのラストスパートの結果だ。最終フェーズにはハルカの獲得票数は18,442票増えた、なんとフェーズ2より536%の増加であった。最終フェーズで2番目に獲得票数が伸びたアンデラ（13,215票・301%増加）よりはるかに高い数字だ。最終フェーズに1万票以上伸びたメンバーは他に4人：フェランダ、フィニ、ユフィアとイカ。獲得率の面では、ユフィア(336%)、ベビー(316%)とアヤナ（315%）は他のメンバーより目立っていた。
前述のようにメンバーの握手会セッション数はやはり獲得票数に影響しただろう。アンデラはその最たる例である。4月初めは4セッションだったが、それを次々と完売、最終的に7セッションを完売した。これはメロディー、フェランダと同じセッション数で、遙香よりも多い。
しかし、そのメンバー一人の握手会セッション数では（この票数に）足りない。シャニアとフィニも、フェランダ、メロディ、アンデラと同じ7セッションを完売したが、それぞれ6位・7位だった。
最終結果の分析には、投票のペースも大事な要素である。5週間の投票期間だと、メンバーに最終票数の20%を毎週投票すると安定ペースとなる。最終フェーズは3週間の長さなので、投票数の60%をこのフェーズ内にしなければいけないこととなる。しかし、ファンベースによって初期のフェーズで資金不足のため、この作戦はあたりまえにできるものではない。その代わりの理想的な展開は、投票ペースを毎週加速させること。32人のメンバー中で、14人以上が最終フェーズで票数の60%以上を獲得した。そのうち10人は選抜メンバーになった。
上位32人ではフェーズ2と3の間に驚くべき展開があったが、上位ランキングを新たに突破できたメンバーは誰もいなかった。フェーズ2でランクインしたメンバー32人が最終フェーズでもランクインしている。
6thシングル選抜総選挙との違い
6thシングルの選抜メンバーで現役の15人(リカが卒業)の中で、11人が10thシングルの選抜になった。しかし、6thシングルの場合は非常に安価なモバイルダウンロードによって票を増やすことができたため、10thシングル選抜の結果をそれと比較することはできない。
しかしながら、去年と今年の投票数の変化はある傾向を示している。1票の平均コストが去年より上がったのに票数が去年と変らないメンバーがいれば、そのメンバーへの投票資金も増えたと言える。例えば、タタとベビーへの資金増加は票のコスト増加に比例している。フィニ、ユフィア、アヤナのファン資金増加は票のコスト増加の約2倍だった。その一方、ヨナファンの資金は票のコストの増加率よりはるかに低かった。
この一面から見ると、シャニア、ナビラとベビーのランクダウンは期待を裏切ったと言っていいだろう。彼女たちはチームJであり1期生の代表的なメンバーではあるが、去年の選抜にも入った若年メンバーとしては、より強く使命感を覚えている年長メンバーたちとの競争に苦戦している模様。最終順位に対する彼女たちのコメントからもそれがわかるだろう。
まとめ
総選挙の投票結果はTjhong Sendrawan (ジョン・スンドラワン)公証人事務所によって認証された。この事務所についてネットでは情報が少ないが、インドネシア上場会社を含む多くの企業の会計を認証しているようだ。従って、投票結果に誤りや不正はなかったと私は判断している。具体的な根拠もなく不正を主張することは不当な中傷と見做されることになる。
今年の総選挙の「シンデレラ」はおそらくシシルだろう。研究生としてずっとやって来て、2期生で最後に正規メンバーになった一人だ。チームK3メンバーになって、劇場内でも外でも存在感をもっと見せ始め、その個性をJKT48ファンに印象づけた。正直言うと、シシルの研究生時代の初期に私も彼女の覚悟を疑っていたが、私が初めて彼女を見てから2年後にまた見た時には彼女はすごく成長していた。
10thシングル総選挙の結果を見ると、力強いスタート（例：シシル）やラストスパート（例：ハルカ） は勝利（選挙でシングル選抜に入る）のカギとなれることがわかる。イカは唯一フェーズ2の獲得票数(1,918票)がフェーズ1（2,580票)より低かったので、上位のメンバーの中で私も最初は心配していたが、間違いなくイカのファンはそれをものともせず長期戦に耐え抜いた。
メロディーの転落はこれから先のJKT48にとってどんな意味を持つだろうか。その一方、JKT48の若い世代を世間に知ってもらうチャンスだ。しかし、インドネシア人にとってJKT48の顔はメロディーだ。ジェシカ・フェランダがJKT48のセンターに立ち、一般のインドネシア人はそれがJKT48だと変わらず認識できることになるだろうか？
Photographs courtesy of Dwango.jp.
Japanese Translation by Wotaliano
Japanese QC by Japarta
Simple strategy. stock the vote until the second announcement and vote it later. last spurt just like horse races
It’s not quite that simple. There were widespread reports of voting codes turning up as invalid or having “expired”, so it is best to check as soon as possible whether the codes were usable. Otherwise you run the risk of money being thrown away on invalid codes.
Well it actually work for Haruka. Saving strategy from the first vote competition (revival) till now. Always save the vote and blast it after the middle announcement
Haruka’s fanbase’s last spurt strategy has successfully worked for two years in a row.
In 2014 JKT48 1st Senbatsu Sousenkyo, Haruka’s 2nd preliminary result was 14th place (2,718 votes) and her final result was 3rd place (13,276). Please note that in 2014 JKT48 1st Senbatsu Sousenkyo period, there were also widespread reports of voting codes turning up as invalid or having “expired”.
I’ve always enjoyed most of your pieces. Please try to limit your unnecessary incorrect facts. We don’t want the “Dentsu Indonesia is owned by Harry Tanoesoedibyo (Global Mediacom or MNC Media Group)” to repeat.
Hopefully next year Haruka will get center position in the senbatsu .. . go go go Haruka Family
As a fan of Yona, I’m really affected by the results. Granted, I’m a single fighter type, so I wouldn’t know nor care enough about all those voting strategies. But still… Anyway, I digress. Good round up, btw.
Another interesting moment is probably the downfall of Yona, who received 3,362 votes less than last year. She’s the only one who receive this, while other members have bigger vote numbers. Hmm, I wonder why though?
Is it because her popularity is fading? Or is it something that she has done in the past year that makes fans oshihen and vote for somebody else?
Your guess is as good as mine. There’s no single satisfactory explanation concerning the matter, at least from what I gathered. I guess I’ll just have to accept the fact that I have failed her. But I’m not trying to speak on behalf of her other fans, though it must have been awful for them also.
well done Haruka’s fanbase
As fans of yona, I was disappointed with the drastic decline in number of votes in the election senbatsu this time by 37.7 % ( according to the data in the article above ) .
Saw some videos on youtube , I saw yona often forget the dance routine, it was evident from the way he looked into other members first before making the next dance routine.
A little input , maybe yona need to work harder in her dance skill.
This is my opinion only.
Thanks
While I’m by no means a professional dancer, coreographer and/or jury, I still can see your point. Perhaps dancing (and memorizing the blocking routines, to some extent) is just not her forte. Though it does make her effort to still try to perform well, or at least on par with the others, as rather commendable.
I also agree with you, she really needs to step it up a couple of notches. But then, there’s that natural limitation concerning talent as well…
I hope these recent events could serve as a wake up call, both for Yona and her fans.
amazing how people always analyze “this” and “that” on the so called “election”
for a non favorite member, Yona actually already made an achievement.. she always made it on every voting event (last year “election”, PD revival, calendar, and this year “election”)..
don’t worry about her, she will make it on the top 16 next year (if she still in JKT and there still be an “election” of course)..
rather than that, you better analyze what happen to Dhike and Shinta
considering they are management favorite, and always appear in non election singles.. especially when you knowing who’s on their fanbases :beanface:
besides, that is one vary line up on the Undergirls.. poor Elaine, hope she will not be trolled and bullied by the troublemakers
P.S : yes, me is a Yona fans
Statistics. I’ve never had good time with it.
Anyway, good job for writing this thesis, uh, I mean this article.